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What will be the outcome of Israeli military presence near Damascus by April 30, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Complete withdrawal • 25%
Partial withdrawal • 25%
Continued presence • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%
The outcome can be determined based on reports from international news agencies and statements from the involved governments.
Story
Israeli Forces Reach 25 km from Damascus After 250 Airstrikes
Dec 10, 2024, 07:03 AM
Israeli military forces have advanced into southern Syria, reaching approximately 25 kilometers (16 miles) southwest of Damascus, according to multiple security sources, including Reuters. In the past 48 hours, the Israeli Air Force conducted over 250 airstrikes, targeting and destroying the Syrian Navy, Air Force, and chemical weapons facilities. Israeli tanks have advanced beyond the buffer zone past Quneitra and are now stationed near the town of Qatana, less than 3 kilometers away, which is about 20 kilometers from the Syrian capital. Nine villages in the southern Damascus countryside are now under Israeli control. The incursion represents a significant escalation in regional tensions.
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No incursion confirmed • 25%
Confirmed incursion • 25%
Outcome remains disputed • 25%
Partial incursion confirmed • 25%
Complete Withdrawal • 25%
Status Quo Maintained • 25%
Increased Presence • 25%
Partial Withdrawal • 25%
Escalation into wider conflict • 25%
Complete withdrawal with no incidents • 25%
Deployment leads to peace negotiations • 25%
Prolonged deployment due to ongoing threats • 25%
Continued presence with limited engagement • 25%
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Full withdrawal • 25%
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Other • 25%
No significant international response • 25%
Increased tensions with Russia • 25%
UN condemnation • 25%
Complete disarmament of Hezbollah • 25%
No significant disarmament • 25%
Increased military presence • 25%
Partial disarmament • 25%
Withdrawal without conflict • 25%
Ongoing occupation • 25%
Negotiated settlement • 25%
Extended military conflict • 25%
Withdrawal without conditions • 25%
Escalation to broader conflict • 25%
Continued military presence • 25%
Withdrawal with conditions • 25%
Partial Withdrawal • 25%
Full Withdrawal • 25%
Other • 25%
Extended Presence • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%
Partial withdrawal • 25%
Continued occupation • 25%
Complete withdrawal • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Israel withdraws • 25%
New security agreement reached • 25%
Continued occupation • 25%
Israel withdraws troops • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
International intervention • 25%
Israel maintains presence • 25%