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What will be the outcome of Israel-Gaza negotiations by January 20, 2025?
2
Joe Biden•Israeli•Benjamin Netanyahu•Gaza•White House•Security•Jake Sullivan•Donald Trump•Sullivan•Netanyahu•Doha
Resolution / Starting Odds
Hostage deal only • 25%
Ceasefire only • 25%
Both hostage deal and ceasefire • 25%
Neither • 25%
Official announcements from the U.S. or Israeli government, major news outlets
Story
Biden to Discuss Gaza Hostage and Ceasefire Deal with Netanyahu Before Trump's Inauguration
Jan 12, 2025, 02:54 PM
U.S. President Joe Biden is expected to speak with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in the near future to discuss ongoing negotiations over a hostage deal and ceasefire in Gaza. White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan indicated that an agreement is very close but not finalized, expressing hope that a deal could be reached before January 20, when Donald Trump is set to be inaugurated. Sullivan's comments suggest a sense of urgency and cautious optimism regarding the negotiations. Netanyahu has dispatched his most senior-level negotiators to Doha to facilitate the talks.
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Hostage release only • 25%
Ceasefire only • 25%
Both ceasefire and hostage release • 25%
Neither • 25%
Partial ceasefire agreement • 25%
Full ceasefire agreement • 25%
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Other outcome • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Hostage exchange deal finalized • 25%
Ceasefire agreement only • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Hostage Release Only • 25%
No Agreement • 25%
Partial Agreement • 25%
Ceasefire Agreement • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Temporary truce without formal agreement • 25%
Other • 25%
Ceasefire with terms agreed • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Partial hostage release • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Other Outcome • 25%
Full Ceasefire and Hostage Release • 25%
Partial Ceasefire and Hostage Release • 25%
No Agreement Reached • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Full agreement reached • 25%
Partial agreement reached • 25%
Talks collapse • 25%
Full ceasefire agreement • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Partial ceasefire with phased agreements • 25%
Partial agreement reached • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Full agreement reached • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ceasefire rejected • 25%
Ceasefire agreed • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Partial agreement with some hostages released • 25%
Negotiations postponed • 25%
Successful ceasefire and all hostages released • 25%