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What will be the outcome of insurrection charges against President Yoon by June 30, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Convicted • 25%
Acquitted • 25%
Charges dropped • 25%
Other • 25%
Court verdicts or major news outlets reporting the final outcome
Story
South Korean Investigators Seek Arrest Warrant for Impeached President Yoon on Insurrection Charges
Dec 30, 2024, 01:48 AM
South Korean investigators have requested a court warrant to detain impeached President Yoon Suk-yeol on insurrection charges related to his short-lived declaration of martial law on December 3. The joint investigation unit filed the arrest warrant with the Seoul Western District Court after Yoon repeatedly declined to appear for questioning. This unprecedented move marks the first time in South Korea's history that authorities have sought to detain a sitting president on insurrection charges.
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Impeached and removed • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Impeached but not removed • 25%
Not impeached • 25%
Charged but not convicted • 25%
Convicted of insurrection • 25%
Cleared of all charges • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Impeachment upheld and Yoon removed • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Impeachment process stalled with no resolution • 25%
Impeachment overturned and Yoon reinstated • 25%
Other Outcome • 25%
Resignation • 25%
Impeached • 25%
Not Impeached • 25%
Arrest not executed by deadline • 25%
Arrest executed without incident • 25%
Arrest executed with PSS interference • 25%
Arrest warrant invalidated • 25%
Plea Deal • 25%
Acquittal • 25%
Conviction • 25%
Ongoing Trial • 25%
Trial extended beyond March 31, 2025 • 34%
Case postponed • 34%
Impeachment upheld • 33%
Impeachment overturned • 33%
Reinstated with conditions • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Removed from office • 25%
Reinstated without conditions • 25%
Arrested but released • 25%
Other legal resolution • 25%
Arrested and detained • 25%
Not arrested • 25%
Not impeached • 25%
Resigned before conclusion • 25%
Impeached and removed • 25%
Impeached but not removed • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Impeachment Failed • 25%
Other Outcome • 25%
Yoon Resigned Before Conclusion • 25%
Impeachment Passed • 25%