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What will be the outcome of Hezbollah's planned attack 'Conquer the Galilee' by December 31, 2024?
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Israel•Hezbollah•Friday•Beirut•Dahieh•Israeli•Israeli airstrike•Ibrahim Aqil•Ahmed Wahbi•Herzog•Conquer the Galilee•Middle East•Iran
Resolution / Starting Odds
Attack occurs and succeeds • 25%
Attack occurs but fails • 25%
Attack is called off • 25%
Attack is thwarted before it begins • 25%
Reports from credible news agencies and official statements from the Israeli and Hezbollah leadership
Story
Israel Confirms Hezbollah Leaders Ibrahim Aqil and Ahmed Wahbi Killed in Friday Airstrike While Plotting October 7-Style Attack
Sep 22, 2024, 11:17 AM
Israel has confirmed that senior Hezbollah leaders killed in a Friday airstrike were meeting to plan a large-scale attack similar to the October 7 atrocities. The meeting, held in Beirut's Dahieh district, was reportedly to discuss a ground invasion into Israeli territory, specifically targeting northern Israel, in response to the pager explosions. The Israeli airstrike resulted in the deaths of two top Hezbollah leaders, Ibrahim Aqil and Ahmed Wahbi. Israeli President Herzog stated in an interview that the leaders were plotting an attack codenamed 'Conquer the Galilee'. The situation has escalated tensions in the Middle East, with Iran condemning the Israeli actions as 'madness'.
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Successful offensive with significant Israeli casualties • 25%
Failed offensive with significant Hezbollah casualties • 25%
Stalemate with no significant casualties on either side • 25%
No major military action • 25%
Hezbollah successfully repels incursion • 25%
Israel successfully advances • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
No incursion occurs • 25%
Significant civilian casualties • 25%
Significant military casualties • 25%
Both civilian and military casualties • 25%
Minimal or no casualties • 25%
Successful interception by Israel • 25%
Partial damage • 25%
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No attack • 25%
Rocket attack • 25%
Drone strike • 25%
Ground incursion • 25%
Other • 25%
Hezbollah gains ground • 25%
Israel gains ground • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Other • 25%
Operation called off • 25%
Successful operation with minimal conflict • 25%
Prolonged conflict with significant casualties • 25%
Stalemate with no clear outcome • 25%
Missile attack • 25%
Drone attack • 25%
Ground incursion • 25%
Other • 25%
Ceasefire Agreement • 25%
Israeli Victory • 25%
Hezbollah Victory • 25%
Ongoing Conflict • 25%
Significant damage to property • 25%
Casualties reported • 25%
Minimal damage • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
Launch more missile attacks • 25%
Increase ground operations near the border • 25%
Seek a ceasefire agreement • 25%
No significant action taken • 25%