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What will be the outcome of Germany's hypothetical EU membership referendum by the end of 2024?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Remain in the EU • 25%
Leave the EU • 25%
No referendum held • 25%
Referendum inconclusive • 25%
Official referendum results published by the German government
Story
AfD Proposes Germany's EU Exit and National Currency in Election Manifesto
Nov 29, 2024, 05:07 PM
The right-wing populist party Alternative for Germany (AfD) has included a proposal for Germany's withdrawal from the European Union in its final draft of the election program, as reported by Der Spiegel. AfD's co-chair, Alice Weidel, has previously stated that her party would campaign for a Brexit-style vote on EU membership. The party, currently polling in second place, has indicated that if they win the election in February, Germany would leave the EU. Furthermore, the draft suggests replacing the euro with a national currency and forming a 'Community of Economies and Interests'.
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Moldova votes against joining the EU • 25%
Referendum results contested • 25%
Referendum postponed • 25%
CDU/CSU wins majority • 25%
AfD wins majority • 25%
Coalition government formed excluding AfD • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
CDU/CSU wins majority • 25%
AfD wins majority • 25%
SPD wins majority • 25%
Other coalition forms majority • 25%
Scholz's party wins majority • 25%
Opposition party wins majority • 25%
Coalition government formed • 25%
Hung parliament • 25%
Scholz retains confidence • 33%
Scholz loses confidence • 33%
Vote postponed • 34%
Full implementation • 25%
Partial implementation • 25%
No implementation • 25%
Reversal of decision • 25%
SPD wins majority • 25%
CDU wins majority • 25%
No clear majority • 25%
Other party wins majority • 25%
Coalition remains unchanged • 25%
New coalition formed • 25%
Early elections announced • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Positive • 33%
Negative • 33%
Neutral • 33%
Christian Democratic Union (CDU) wins majority • 25%
Social Democratic Party (SPD) wins majority • 25%
A coalition government forms • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Increased public support for the government • 25%
Decreased public support for the government • 25%
No significant change in public opinion • 25%
Public opinion becomes more polarized • 25%
Supportive • 25%
Opposed • 25%
Indifferent • 25%
Mixed • 25%