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What will be the next major U.S. diplomatic move towards Cuba by June 30, 2025?
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José Daniel Ferrer•Vatican•Biden•Ferrer•Cuba•Union Patriótica de Cuba•UNPACU•Luis Robles•Otero Alcántara•Maykel Oborbo
Resolution / Starting Odds
Restoration of full diplomatic relations • 25%
Further easing of sanctions • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
Reimposition of sanctions • 25%
Official announcements from the U.S. government and major news outlets
Story
Cuba Frees 553 Prisoners Including Opposition Leader José Daniel Ferrer in U.S.-Vatican Deal
Jan 16, 2025, 05:25 PM
Cuban authorities have released José Daniel Ferrer, a prominent opposition leader and political prisoner, as part of an agreement facilitated by the Vatican and the Biden administration. Ferrer, who was detained on July 11, 2021, during widespread anti-government protests, was among 553 prisoners set free under the deal. The release comes after the U.S. removed Cuba from its list of countries that sponsor terrorism. Ferrer, a leader of the Union Patriótica de Cuba (UNPACU), had been subjected to physical and psychological torture during his imprisonment. Alongside Ferrer, Luis Robles was also released, though other political prisoners such as Otero Alcántara and Maykel Oborbo remain incarcerated.
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Similar markets
Increased economic cooperation • 25%
Improved diplomatic relations • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other • 25%
No change • 25%
Uncertain outcome • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
New sanctions imposed • 25%
Extradition of suspects • 25%
No significant action • 25%
US removes Cuba from terrorism list • 25%
Military escalation • 25%
New peace talks • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Humanitarian aid agreement • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
European Union • 25%
Other • 25%
Vatican • 25%
United Nations • 25%
All of the above • 25%
Suspend expropriation claims • 25%
Rescind Trump-era restrictions • 25%
Lift terrorism designation • 25%
Increase in trade • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Decrease in trade • 25%
Other • 25%
Removal confirmed but reversed • 25%
Removal confirmed and sustained • 25%
Removal blocked by Congress • 25%
No action taken • 25%
Other diplomatic gestures • 25%
Release of political prisoners • 25%
Economic reforms • 25%
No significant response • 25%