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What will be the status of Israel-Hamas relations by the end of Biden's term in January 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Cease-fire deal reached • 25%
Hostage-release deal reached • 25%
Both cease-fire and hostage-release deals reached • 25%
No deals reached • 25%
Official announcements from the U.S. government, Israel, or Hamas, and credible news sources like The Wall Street Journal
Story
Israel-Hamas Deal Unlikely Before End of Biden's Term in January 2025, U.S. Officials Say
Sep 19, 2024, 10:35 PM
Senior U.S. officials have indicated that a cease-fire and hostage-release deal between Israel and Hamas is unlikely to be reached before the end of President Joe Biden's term in January 2025. Despite months of efforts, the officials now privately acknowledge that no agreement is imminent. The Wall Street Journal reports that the administration had previously suggested that a deal was close, but progress has stalled. One official expressed doubt about the deal ever being finalized, citing Hamas's lack of seriousness in negotiations.
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Active conflict • 25%
Ceasefire • 25%
Peace agreement • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Strengthened relations • 25%
Weakened relations • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Escalated conflict • 25%
De-escalation • 25%
Ceasefire • 25%
Strengthened relationship • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Strained relationship • 25%
Severe diplomatic fallout • 25%
Relations remain the same • 33%
Relations improve • 33%
Relations worsen • 33%
Successful agreement • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Talks collapse • 25%
No talks held • 25%
Strengthened relations • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Tensions increase • 25%
Formal diplomatic actions or sanctions • 25%
Relations worsen • 33%
Relations improve • 33%
Relations remain same • 33%
Relations improve • 25%
Relations remain unchanged • 25%
Relations worsen • 25%
Relations break • 25%
Direct negotiation • 25%
Mediation • 25%
Military support • 25%
No significant involvement • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Continued conflict • 25%
Peace treaty • 25%
Other outcome • 25%