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What will be the level of U.S. involvement in Ukraine-Russia negotiations in 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
High involvement • 25%
Moderate involvement • 25%
Low involvement • 25%
No involvement • 25%
Statements from U.S. government officials or major international news outlets
Story
Macron Urges Ukraine for 'Realistic' Territorial Talks in Fourth Year of Conflict
Jan 6, 2025, 01:00 PM
French President Emmanuel Macron has urged Ukraine to engage in 'realistic' discussions on territorial issues as the conflict with Russia enters its fourth year. Speaking at the Elysee Palace to French ambassadors, Macron emphasized that only Ukrainians can conduct these negotiations. He warned that there will be no 'quick and easy solution' to the conflict, rejecting the notion of a swift settlement despite recent comments from U.S. President-elect Donald Trump. Macron stressed the importance of U.S. assistance in pressuring Russia to return to negotiations and highlighted Europe's responsibility to provide Ukraine with security guarantees. He also cautioned that Western credibility would be undermined by any compromise due to 'fatigue' from the prolonged conflict.
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Bilateral negotiations only • 25%
Multilateral talks including NATO • 25%
No negotiations • 25%
Negotiations stalled • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Other • 25%
No significant change • 25%
De-escalation agreement • 25%
Negotiations occur with no agreements • 25%
No negotiations occur • 25%
Negotiations result in partial agreements • 25%
Negotiations result in comprehensive agreements • 25%
Mediating role • 25%
Supportive but not mediating • 25%
Other role • 25%
Non-participatory • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Formal diplomatic talks initiated • 25%
Status quo • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
No support • 25%
Reduced support • 25%
Maintained current level • 25%
Increased support • 25%
Minor Concessions • 25%
Major Concessions • 25%
No Concessions • 25%
Escalation • 25%
Other • 25%
No agreement • 25%
Full peace treaty • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Diplomatic support only • 25%
Humanitarian aid • 25%
Military deployment • 25%
No involvement • 25%
Continued military escalation • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Diplomatic stalemate • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Decreased conflict • 25%
Peace agreement reached • 25%
Increased conflict • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
No significant outcome • 25%
Increased sanctions • 25%
Military escalation • 25%