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What will be the level of military activity around Taiwan by end of 2024?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Increased military activity by China • 25%
Increased military activity by Taiwan • 25%
Increased military activity by both • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Reports from Taiwan's defense ministry or credible news sources like Reuters, BBC, CNN
Story
China Launches New Nuclear ICBM into Pacific Amid Heightened Military Activity Around Taiwan
Sep 26, 2024, 04:57 AM
China has launched a new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), capable of carrying nuclear warheads, into the Pacific. The launch, which China notified relevant countries about in advance, has been described by the Chinese Defense Ministry as a legitimate and reasonable act, according to Xinhua. The Kremlin has expressed respect for China's sovereign right to conduct such tests and confirmed that information was exchanged. The launch comes amid heightened military activity by China around Taiwan, with Taiwan's defense ministry reporting a surge in Chinese warplanes and live-fire drills. Taiwan has responded by bolstering its defenses, citing the serious challenge posed by China's actions. China’s Defense Ministry stated that its nuclear capabilities would be maintained at the minimum level required for national security.
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Naval transit • 25%
Air patrol • 25%
Joint military exercise • 25%
Other • 25%
Increased air patrols • 25%
Increased naval patrols • 25%
Diplomatic protest • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Increased military tension • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other • 25%
Increased tensions but no military conflict • 25%
Formal diplomatic negotiations initiated • 25%
Military conflict initiated • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Increased tensions with Taiwan • 25%
Improved military capabilities • 25%
International diplomatic backlash • 25%
No significant outcome • 25%
Aircraft transit • 25%
Naval patrol • 25%
Joint military exercise with Taiwan • 25%
Other • 25%
