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Will Taiwan conduct live-fire drills in response to China's military activity by end of 2024?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official announcements from Taiwan's defense ministry or credible news sources like Reuters, BBC, CNN
Story
China Launches New Nuclear ICBM into Pacific Amid Heightened Military Activity Around Taiwan
Sep 26, 2024, 04:57 AM
China has launched a new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), capable of carrying nuclear warheads, into the Pacific. The launch, which China notified relevant countries about in advance, has been described by the Chinese Defense Ministry as a legitimate and reasonable act, according to Xinhua. The Kremlin has expressed respect for China's sovereign right to conduct such tests and confirmed that information was exchanged. The launch comes amid heightened military activity by China around Taiwan, with Taiwan's defense ministry reporting a surge in Chinese warplanes and live-fire drills. Taiwan has responded by bolstering its defenses, citing the serious challenge posed by China's actions. China’s Defense Ministry stated that its nuclear capabilities would be maintained at the minimum level required for national security.
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Increased military exercises by China • 25%
Diplomatic talks initiated • 25%
Economic sanctions imposed by China • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Increase military readiness • 25%
Seek international support • 25%
Engage in diplomatic talks • 25%
Other • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Diplomatic protests only • 25%
Increased military readiness • 25%
Formal alliance request • 25%
Direct military engagement • 25%
Increase in Defense Spending • 25%
New Defense Alliances • 25%
Strengthening Domestic Military Capabilities • 25%
No Significant Change • 25%
Increase military readiness • 25%
Seek international military support • 25%
Engage in direct military confrontation • 25%
No significant change in strategy • 25%
