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What will be the impact on Syrian internal politics by December 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Increased support for Assad regime • 25%
Increased opposition to Assad regime • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
Other political shifts • 25%
Analysis from political analysts and reports from credible news agencies
Story
Syrian Islamist Fighters Burn Hafez al-Assad's Mausoleum, Father of President Bashar al-Assad
Dec 11, 2024, 01:53 PM
On Wednesday, December 11, Syrian Islamist fighters reportedly destroyed and set fire to the mausoleum of former President Hafez al-Assad, father of current President Bashar al-Assad, in his hometown of Qardaha, Latakia province. The mausoleum, which also contains the grave of Bassel al-Assad, was engulfed in flames, as seen in videos circulating online. The act was allegedly carried out by militants associated with Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). Witnesses reported that armed men entered the Alawite town, sometimes cursing and intimidating locals. Hafez al-Assad ruled Syria from 1971 until his death in 2000, establishing a political dynasty continued by his son Bashar al-Assad.
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Partition of Syria • 25%
Peace Agreement • 25%
Other • 25%
Ongoing Conflict • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Rebels gain significant ground • 25%
Peace agreement reached • 25%
Government gains significant ground • 25%
Continued Conflict • 25%
Other • 25%
Regime Change • 25%
Ceasefire Agreement • 25%
No major changes • 25%
New elections held • 25%
Constitutional reforms • 25%
Leadership change • 25%
National unity government formed • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No significant progress • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Complete expulsion of foreign bases • 25%
Reduction in foreign bases • 25%
Existing bases maintained • 25%
More foreign bases allowed • 25%
Assad Regime Victory • 25%
Peace Agreement • 25%
Stalemate/Status Quo • 25%
Rebel Victory • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Assad regime retains control • 25%
Coalition government formed • 25%
Opposition takes control • 25%
In conflict • 25%
Other • 25%
Divided with multiple factions • 25%
Unified under a single government • 25%
Other • 25%
New elections held • 25%
Ongoing civil unrest • 25%
Stable government established • 25%
Regime collapse • 25%
Loses significant territory • 25%
Maintains current control • 25%
Regains full control • 25%
Ongoing conflict with no clear resolution • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
New government established • 25%
Assad regime remains in power • 25%