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What key political changes will occur in Syria by the end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
New elections held • 25%
Constitutional reforms • 25%
Leadership change • 25%
No major changes • 25%
Official government announcements and news reports
Story
Syria's Ahmed al-Sharaa Vows No Negative Interference in Lebanon After Assad's Ouster
Dec 22, 2024, 11:32 AM
Syria's new leader, Ahmed al-Sharaa, has pledged that his country will not engage in negative interference in Lebanon. During a meeting with Lebanese Druze leaders Walid and Taymour Jumblatt on Sunday, Sharaa emphasized that Syria would respect Lebanon's sovereignty, territorial integrity, and security. He stated that Syria would maintain an equal distance from all parties in Lebanon, acknowledging past fears and anxieties Syria has caused in the country. This commitment comes as part of broader efforts to normalize relations with neighboring countries following the overthrow of former President Bashar al-Assad by Sharaa's group, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), earlier this month.
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Assad regime retains control • 25%
Opposition takes control • 25%
Coalition government formed • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Stable government established • 25%
Ongoing civil unrest • 25%
New elections held • 25%
Other • 25%
Democratic elections held • 25%
Interim government appointed • 25%
Military-led government • 25%
Other • 25%
Democratic government established • 25%
Military junta takes control • 25%
Interim government with international oversight • 25%
Continued civil unrest with no clear leadership • 25%
Democratic governance • 25%
Military rule • 25%
Authoritarian regime • 25%
Other • 25%
Inclusive government with opposition • 25%
Government led by former regime members • 25%
Government led by opposition forces • 25%
Other • 25%
Assad regime remains in power • 25%
New government established • 25%
Ongoing conflict with no clear resolution • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Non-sectarian government established • 25%
Current government remains • 25%
New sectarian government formed • 25%
Government collapse • 25%
Increased support for Assad regime • 25%
Increased opposition to Assad regime • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
Other political shifts • 25%
Pro-Iranian leadership • 25%
Pro-Western leadership • 25%
Independent leadership • 25%
No stable leadership • 25%
Pro-Western government • 25%
Pro-Iranian government • 25%
Pro-Russian government • 25%
Other • 25%
Pro-Western • 25%
Pro-Iranian • 25%
Pro-Russian • 25%
Neutral/Other • 25%