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What will be the impact on Hamas leadership structure by December 31, 2025, following Haniyeh's assassination?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
New leader elected • 25%
Internal power struggle • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other • 25%
Announcements from Hamas or credible reports
Story
Israeli Channel 12 Reports Ismail Haniyeh Assassinated by Bomb Hidden in Pillow in Tehran Before Inauguration Ceremony
Dec 28, 2024, 07:20 PM
Israeli Channel 12 has reported that Ismail Haniyeh, the late head of Hamas, was assassinated in Tehran through a bomb concealed in his personal pillow. The channel indicated that new details regarding the assassination will be disclosed next Saturday, revealing how the bomb was placed in Haniyeh's room. The report suggests that the assassination was carried out by the Israeli intelligence agency Mossad, with the bomb strategically positioned to avoid collateral damage. Additionally, it was noted that Haniyeh had been observed visiting the same location in Tehran multiple times and staying in the same room. The bomb was reportedly planted before the inauguration ceremony of the new Iranian president.
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Internal conflict arises • 25%
Other significant change • 25%
New leader appointed • 25%
Leadership remains unchanged • 25%
New leader appointed • 25%
Leadership dispute • 25%
Other leadership outcome • 25%
Current leader remains • 25%
Current leader remains • 25%
Other leadership change • 25%
Leadership transition in progress • 25%
New leader appointed • 25%
Ismail Haniyeh • 25%
Other • 25%
Yahya Sinwar • 25%
Khaled Mashal • 25%
No leadership change • 25%
Leadership restructuring • 25%
Other organizational changes • 25%
Hamas leadership change • 25%
No formal response • 25%
Condemnation of both • 25%
Condemnation of Iran • 25%
Condemnation of Israel • 25%
Another entity confirmed as responsible • 25%
Investigation ongoing • 25%
Mossad confirmed as responsible • 25%
No conclusive result • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Leadership change due to internal factors • 25%
Leadership remains unchanged • 25%
Leadership arrested or neutralized • 25%
Leadership change due to external pressure • 25%
No change • 25%
Change in Hamas leadership • 25%
Change in Israeli leadership • 25%
Change in both • 25%
Other • 25%
Ismail Haniyeh • 25%
Yahya Sinwar • 25%
Mohammed Deif • 25%