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What will be the status of Hamas leadership by June 30, 2025 if hostages are not released?
4
Resolution / Starting Odds
Leadership remains unchanged • 25%
Leadership change due to external pressure • 25%
Leadership change due to internal factors • 25%
Leadership arrested or neutralized • 25%
Reports from credible news agencies and official statements from relevant authorities
Story
Trump Warns Hamas: Severe Consequences if Gaza Hostages Not Released by Inauguration
Dec 2, 2024, 06:58 PM
President-elect Donald Trump has issued a stern warning regarding the Gaza hostage situation, indicating that if the hostages are not freed before he takes office on January 20th, the repercussions in the Middle East will be severe. Trump's statement, shared across multiple platforms, emphasizes the urgency of the situation, stating that there will be 'all hell to pay in the Middle East' if the hostages are not released. The warning is directed at Hamas, with Trump suggesting that failure to comply would result in significant consequences for the region and those responsible for the hostage-taking. He further warned that if the hostages are not returned by January 20th, every living Hamas member would be returned in body bags.
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Similar markets
Gaza • 25%
Transferred to another location • 25%
Released • 25%
Unknown • 25%
Hostages released • 25%
Hostages confirmed deceased • 25%
Hostages remain captive • 25%
Status unresolved • 25%
Sinwar remains in power • 25%
New Hamas leader • 25%
Interim leadership • 25%
No clear leadership • 25%
Hostages successfully rescued • 25%
Hostages harmed or neutralized • 25%
Hostages remain in captivity • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
All hostages released • 25%
Some hostages released • 25%
No hostages released • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
All hostages released • 25%
Some hostages released • 25%
No hostages released • 25%
Other • 25%
All hostages released • 25%
Some hostages released • 25%
No hostages released • 25%
Hostages' status unknown • 25%
All released • 25%
Some released • 25%
None released • 25%
Status unknown • 25%
