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What will be the impact of US sanctions on Iran's economy by end of 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Severe recession • 25%
Mild recession • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
Economic growth • 25%
Reports from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) or World Bank on Iran's economic performance
Story
Trump to Revive 'Maximum Pressure' on Iran, Targeting Oil Exports to Bankrupt Tehran
Nov 16, 2024, 04:20 PM
Donald Trump's new administration plans to revive its 'maximum pressure' policy on Iran to 'bankrupt' Tehran's ability to fund regional proxies and develop nuclear weapons, according to the Financial Times. Trump's foreign policy team will seek to ratchet up sanctions on Tehran, including vital oil exports, aiming to reduce Iran's oil exports from 1.5 million barrels per day to 500,000 barrels per day. Executive orders are being prepared that could be issued on his first day in office. The strategy aims to force Iran to negotiate a new nuclear deal and change its regional policies.
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Severe economic downturn • 25%
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Regime change • 25%
Increased protests • 25%
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Strengthened regime • 25%
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Iran agrees to new negotiations • 25%
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No significant change • 25%
Sanat Danesh Rahpuyan Aflak Company Ltd • 25%
Illumove SA • 25%
IRGC Aerospace Force • 25%
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Increased oil exports to non-US allies • 25%
Diversification of economy • 25%
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Moderate Reduction • 25%
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Petroleum • 25%
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