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How will Iran respond to US sanctions by December 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Increase nuclear activities • 25%
Seek negotiations • 25%
Strengthen regional proxies • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Official statements from the Iranian government or credible news reports
Story
Trump to Revive 'Maximum Pressure' on Iran, Targeting Oil Exports to Bankrupt Tehran
Nov 16, 2024, 04:20 PM
Donald Trump's new administration plans to revive its 'maximum pressure' policy on Iran to 'bankrupt' Tehran's ability to fund regional proxies and develop nuclear weapons, according to the Financial Times. Trump's foreign policy team will seek to ratchet up sanctions on Tehran, including vital oil exports, aiming to reduce Iran's oil exports from 1.5 million barrels per day to 500,000 barrels per day. Executive orders are being prepared that could be issued on his first day in office. The strategy aims to force Iran to negotiate a new nuclear deal and change its regional policies.
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Increase in nuclear activities • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
Military retaliation • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Agree to negotiations • 25%
Retaliatory measures • 25%
Ignore the sanctions • 25%
Condemn the sanctions without action • 25%
Retaliatory sanctions • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
Military escalation • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
Retaliatory sanctions • 25%
Military escalation • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Retaliatory measures announced • 25%
Continued negotiations • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Other diplomatic actions • 25%
Military Retaliation • 25%
Diplomatic Measures • 25%
Accelerated Nuclear Development • 25%
No Significant Response • 25%
Support from EU • 25%
Opposition from EU • 25%
Support from UN • 25%
Opposition from UN • 25%
Compliance with demands • 25%
Increase in nuclear activities • 25%
Retaliatory sanctions • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
Economic Sanctions • 25%
Military Sanctions • 25%
Travel Sanctions • 25%
No New Sanctions • 25%
Retaliatory Sanctions • 25%
Diplomatic Measures • 25%
Military Threats • 25%
Other • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Retaliatory sanctions • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
No response • 25%
Other • 25%