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What will be the impact of the ceasefire on Gaza conflict resolution by the end of 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Significant progress in peace talks • 25%
Moderate progress in peace talks • 25%
No progress in peace talks • 25%
Deterioration of peace talks • 25%
Reports from international conflict resolution organizations or peace talks progress
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Macron Announces Release of Ofer Kalderon and Ohad Yahalomi Among 33 Hostages in Gaza Ceasefire
Jan 17, 2025, 10:57 AM
French President Emmanuel Macron announced that French-Israeli citizens Ofer Kalderon and Ohad Yahalomi, who have been held captive for 15 months, are included in the first group of 33 hostages set to be released by Hamas. This release is part of the initial phase of a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas, which is expected to begin on Sunday. The hostages' release marks a significant step in the ongoing efforts to resolve the conflict in Gaza.
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Short-term ceasefire • 25%
Ongoing conflict • 25%
Failed negotiations • 25%
Long-term ceasefire • 25%
Significant improvement in humanitarian conditions • 25%
Moderate improvement in humanitarian conditions • 25%
Worsening of humanitarian conditions • 25%
No change in humanitarian conditions • 25%
Moderate decrease in hostilities • 25%
No change in hostilities • 25%
Increase in hostilities • 25%
Significant decrease in hostilities • 25%
Ceasefire holds with no major violations • 25%
Ceasefire holds with minor violations • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ceasefire breaks with major conflict • 25%
Significant improvement • 25%
Deterioration • 25%
Moderate improvement • 25%
No change • 25%
Ceasefire implemented • 25%
Increased international military intervention • 25%
No ceasefire, continued conflict • 25%
Partial ceasefire with ongoing skirmishes • 25%
Sustained peace • 25%
Partial implementation with tensions • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Resumption of conflict • 25%
Agreement approved but not implemented • 25%
Agreement not approved • 25%
Agreement approved and implemented • 25%
Negotiations continue beyond deadline • 25%
Ceasefire in effect • 25%
Renewed negotiations • 25%
Ongoing conflict • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Full agreement reached • 25%
Partial agreement reached • 25%
Talks collapse • 25%
Complete Israeli control • 25%
Hostage deal with no further conflict • 25%
Ongoing conflict • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%