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What will be the duration of any ground combat between Hezbollah and Israeli forces by December 31, 2024?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Less than 1 week • 25%
1 to 4 weeks • 25%
1 to 3 months • 25%
More than 3 months • 25%
Verified news reports from major news outlets and official statements from both parties
Story
Hezbollah Ready for Israeli Ground Incursion, Confident of Victory, Says Deputy Chief
Sep 30, 2024, 09:17 AM
Hezbollah's Deputy Secretary-General, Sheikh Naim Qassem, has declared that the group is prepared for any potential Israeli ground incursion into southern Lebanon. Qassem emphasized that Hezbollah's fighters are ready to engage in ground combat and are confident that Israel will not achieve its goals. He stated that the resistance is prepared for a long battle and all options are open. Qassem also mentioned that despite ongoing conflicts, Hezbollah's military capabilities remain intact, and their rockets continue to be operational. He assured that Hezbollah will emerge victorious and that their actions are part of an ongoing battle plan.
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Successful with minimal casualties • 25%
Successful with significant casualties • 25%
Unsuccessful • 25%
No ground incursion • 25%
Israel declares victory • 25%
Hezbollah declares victory • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Continued low-intensity conflict • 25%
Escalation to full-scale war • 25%
Peace agreement • 25%
Ceasefire Agreement • 25%
Escalation into Full-Scale War • 25%
Continued Skirmishes • 25%
Other • 25%
Hezbollah gains territory • 25%
Israeli forces gain territory • 25%
Stalemate with no significant changes • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Continued skirmishes without agreement • 25%
Full-scale war • 25%
Other • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Escalation into full-scale war • 25%
Status quo with intermittent skirmishes • 25%
Hezbollah disarmed by international intervention • 25%
Hezbollah significantly weakened • 25%
Hezbollah remains largely intact • 25%
Hezbollah strengthens • 25%
Inconclusive outcome • 25%
Israel declares victory • 25%
Hezbollah declares victory • 25%
Ceasefire agreed • 25%
Conflict continues • 25%
Less than 1 week • 25%
1-2 weeks • 25%
2-4 weeks • 25%
More than 4 weeks • 25%
Escalation to full-scale war • 25%
Return to status quo • 25%
Peace negotiations • 25%
Other • 25%
Full-scale war • 25%
Limited skirmishes • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
Successful ground invasion and significant degradation of Hezbollah • 25%
Limited ground invasion with minor impact on Hezbollah • 25%
No ground invasion but continued airstrikes • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Hezbollah gains ground • 25%
Israel gains ground • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Other • 25%