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How long will the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah last by September 30, 2024?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Less than 1 week • 25%
1-2 weeks • 25%
2-4 weeks • 25%
More than 4 weeks • 25%
Official statements from the Israeli government or credible news sources such as Reuters, BBC, or Al Jazeera
Story
Israel to Retaliate Strongly Against Hezbollah After Majdal Shams Attack, Aims to Avoid Regional War
Jul 29, 2024, 08:04 AM
Israeli security officials have stated that while Israel plans to retaliate strongly against Hezbollah, it does not intend to start an all-out regional war. This stance comes in response to a recent rocket attack on Majdal Shams. Senior Israeli defense officials emphasized that the country aims to hurt Hezbollah but wants to avoid dragging the region into a prolonged conflict. Two other Israeli officials mentioned that the country is preparing for the possibility of a few days of fighting. According to a U.S. official, the Biden administration is monitoring the situation closely. The initial statement was reported by Sky News in Arabic.
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Full-scale war • 25%
Limited skirmishes • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
Escalation to full-scale war • 25%
Return to status quo • 25%
Peace negotiations • 25%
Other • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Continued skirmishes without agreement • 25%
Full-scale war • 25%
Other • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Continued low-intensity conflict • 25%
Full-scale war • 25%
Other • 25%
Israel declares victory • 25%
Hezbollah declares victory • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Continued low-level skirmishes • 25%
Full-scale war • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Continued low-intensity conflict • 25%
Escalation to full-scale war • 25%
Peace agreement • 25%
Ceasefire Agreement • 25%
Escalation into Full-Scale War • 25%
Continued Skirmishes • 25%
Other • 25%
De-escalation • 25%
Status quo • 25%
Increased skirmishes • 25%
Full-scale war • 25%
Less than 1 week • 25%
1 to 4 weeks • 25%
1 to 3 months • 25%
More than 3 months • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Continued conflict with no major change • 25%
Escalation into a larger regional conflict • 25%
International intervention leading to peace talks • 25%
Ceasefire Agreement • 25%
Israel Victory • 25%
Hezbollah Victory • 25%
Ongoing Conflict • 25%
No conflict • 25%
Limited skirmishes • 25%
Full-scale war • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%