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What will be the diplomatic outcome between Iran and Italy by end of 2025 following Abedini's release?
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Carlo Nordio•Iranian•Mohammad Abedini Najafabadi•Milan Airport•United States•Abedini•Iran•Revolutionary Guards•Jordan•American•Italian Ministry of Justice•Italy•Milan•Opera•Italian•Cecilia Sala
Resolution / Starting Odds
Increased cooperation • 25%
Tensions escalate • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other diplomatic actions • 25%
Official statements from the Iranian or Italian governments, or credible news reports
Story
Italy Frees Iranian Engineer Abedini After Nordio Rejects US Extradition Request
Jan 12, 2025, 03:11 PM
Italian Justice Minister Carlo Nordio has requested the revocation of the arrest of Iranian engineer Mohammad Abedini Najafabadi, who was detained at Milan Airport on December 26 at the request of the United States. Abedini, a 38-year-old Swiss-Iranian national, was accused by the U.S. of supplying drone technology to Iran's Revolutionary Guards, allegedly used in an attack in Jordan that killed three American soldiers. The Italian Ministry of Justice stated that there is no evidence supporting the accusations and that the alleged offense is not recognized under the extradition treaty between Italy and the United States. Abedini was released from Milan's Opera prison early Sunday morning and is expected to return to Iran in the coming hours, according to Iran's judiciary. The decision comes days after Iran released Italian journalist Cecilia Sala from detention.
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Unclear impact • 25%
Relations improve • 25%
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Relations improve • 25%
Relations fluctuate • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Relations worsen • 25%
No significant change • 25%
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Tensions increase • 25%
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Trade agreement • 25%
Diplomatic visit • 25%
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Prisoner exchange • 25%
Abedini released • 25%
Abedini extradited to U.S. • 25%
Abedini remains detained in Italy • 25%
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No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Case dismissed • 25%
Convicted in Italy • 25%
Extradited to another country • 25%
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Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Extradited to the US • 25%
Released without extradition • 25%
Charged and tried in Italy • 25%
Still detained awaiting decision • 25%
Cecilia Sala released • 25%
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Prisoner exchange involving Mohammad Abedini • 25%
Cecilia Sala remains detained • 25%