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Nature of next significant diplomatic action between Italy and Iran by July 2025?
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Italy•Iranian•Mohammad Abedini Najafabadi•Milan•United States•American•Jordan•Italian Justice Ministry•Carlo Nordio•Milan Court of Appeal•Abedini•Italian•Iran•Cecilia Sala
Resolution / Starting Odds
Prisoner exchange • 25%
Trade agreement • 25%
Diplomatic visit • 25%
Other • 25%
Official announcements from the Italian or Iranian governments
Story
Italy Frees Iranian Engineer Accused by U.S. of Supplying Drone Tech Used in Attack Killing U.S. Soldiers
Jan 12, 2025, 05:15 PM
Italy has released 38-year-old Iranian engineer Mohammad Abedini Najafabadi, who was arrested in Milan on December 16 at the request of the United States on charges of exporting drone technology used in a 2024 attack that killed three American soldiers in Jordan. The Italian Justice Ministry announced that Justice Minister Carlo Nordio filed a request with the Milan Court of Appeal to revoke Abedini's arrest, stating that there was no evidence supporting the U.S. accusations and that the alleged offenses were not recognized under Italian law. Abedini was released early Sunday morning and has returned to Iran. The decision follows the recent release of Italian journalist Cecilia Sala from detention in Iran, leading to speculation of a possible prisoner exchange between the two countries.
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Tensions increase • 25%
Improved diplomatic relations • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Tensions escalate • 25%
Other diplomatic actions • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Increased cooperation • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Diplomatic ties severed • 25%
Relations improve • 25%
Relations remain the same • 25%
Relations worsen • 25%
Other diplomatic resolution • 25%
Prisoner exchange involving Mohammad Abedini • 25%
Cecilia Sala released • 25%
Cecilia Sala remains detained • 25%
Relations deteriorate • 25%
Relations improve • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Unclear impact • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Other impact • 25%
Relations unchanged • 25%
Relations improve • 25%
Relations deteriorate • 25%
