Loading...
Market
What will be the impact of Abedini's case on Italy-Iran relations by end of 2025?
2
Carlo Nordio•Mohammad Abedini Najafabadi•Iranian•Milan•Opera•Milan Court of Appeals•United States•Italy•Abedini•IEEPA•Italian•Cecilia Sala•Iran•Tehran
Resolution / Starting Odds
Relations improve • 25%
Relations deteriorate • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Unclear impact • 25%
Statements from Italian or Iranian foreign ministries or international relations analysts
Story
Italian Minister Nordio Seeks to Revoke Arrest of Iranian Engineer Abedini in Milan's Opera Prison Amid Extradition Dispute
Jan 12, 2025, 12:34 PM
Italian Justice Minister Carlo Nordio has requested the revocation of the arrest of Mohammad Abedini Najafabadi, an Iranian engineer detained in Milan's Opera prison. The request was filed with the Milan Court of Appeals, citing that the conditions for extradition to the United States, as outlined in Article 2 of the extradition treaty between the U.S. and Italy, are not met. The ministry noted that the charges against Abedini, including association to violate the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) and providing material support to a terrorist organization resulting in deaths, do not correspond to crimes under Italian law. Abedini's case has been linked to the recent release of Italian journalist Cecilia Sala from detention in Iran, although Tehran has denied any connection between the two cases.
View original story
Similar markets
Relations worsen • 25%
Relations fluctuate • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Relations improve • 25%
Increased cooperation • 25%
Tensions escalate • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other diplomatic actions • 25%
Other impact • 25%
Relations deteriorate • 25%
Relations improve • 25%
Relations unchanged • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Still detained awaiting decision • 25%
Charged and tried in Italy • 25%
Released without extradition • 25%
Extradited to the US • 25%
Returned to Iran • 25%
Extradited to the US • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Released in Italy • 25%
Diplomatic protest • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Legal appeal • 25%
Economic sanctions • 25%
Extradition denied • 25%
Settlement reached • 25%
Extradition approved • 25%
Case dismissed • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
