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What major policy change, if any, will occur in U.S. trade regulations with China by December 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Tariff Increase • 25%
Tariff Decrease • 25%
New Trade Agreement • 25%
No Major Change • 25%
Official announcements from the U.S. government or major news outlets
Story
Trump Names Howard Lutnick as Commerce Secretary to Lead Trade Agenda
Nov 19, 2024, 07:45 PM
President-elect Donald Trump has announced Howard Lutnick, Chairman and CEO of Cantor Fitzgerald, as his choice for Secretary of Commerce, pending Senate confirmation. Lutnick, a billionaire businessman and key transition adviser, is expected to lead the administration's tariff and trade agenda, with additional responsibility for the Office of the United States Trade Representative and oversight of China's technology regulations. A prominent figure on Wall Street for over 30 years, Lutnick played a pivotal role in rebuilding Cantor Fitzgerald after the 9/11 attacks. He has been leading Trump's transition team and aims to encourage products and technological advancements to be "made in America" again. Trump stated that Lutnick "has created the most sophisticated process and system to assist us in creating the greatest Administration America has ever seen."
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Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Strengthened trade restrictions • 25%
Relaxed trade restrictions • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other • 25%
Significant deterioration • 25%
Minor deterioration • 25%
No change • 25%
Improvement • 25%
Trade Tariffs • 25%
Military Presence in Asia • 25%
Taiwan Relations • 25%
Human Rights Sanctions • 25%
New trade agreement • 25%
Increased tariffs • 25%
Reduced tariffs • 25%
No change • 25%
New trade agreement • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Temporary truce • 25%
Escalation of trade war • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
New trade agreement • 25%
Improvement • 33%
Deterioration • 33%
No significant change • 33%
Improvement in trade relations • 25%
Deterioration in trade relations • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other developments • 25%
Extend exemptions • 25%
Reinstate tariffs • 25%
Modify exemptions • 25%
Introduce new measures • 25%
Improved • 25%
Worsened • 25%
No Change • 25%
Uncertain • 25%