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U.S. to Remove Cuba from Terror List by January 31, 2025?
4
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official announcement from the U.S. Department of State or a credible news outlet
Story
U.S. to Remove Cuba from Terror List in Vatican-Brokered Deal to Free 553 Prisoners
Jan 14, 2025, 11:10 PM
In a last-minute decision, the Biden administration announced plans to remove Cuba from the U.S. state sponsors of terrorism list in exchange for the release of 553 prisoners, including political detainees. The move, facilitated by the Vatican, follows discussions between President Miguel Díaz-Canel and Pope Francis. Biden will also rescind Trump-era restrictions and eliminate the restricted list targeting Cuban entities subject to prohibited transactions. The president has notified Congress of his plans, which come just days before he leaves office. Republicans have expressed outrage over the move, vowing to reverse it when President-elect Donald Trump, who had originally added Cuba to the list in 2021, takes office on January 20.
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No • 50%
Yes • 50%
January 2025 • 25%
Not by March 2025 • 25%
March 2025 • 25%
February 2025 • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Other outcome • 25%
Reversal by Trump administration • 25%
U.S.-Cuba relations improve • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Negative response from EU • 25%
Negative response from Latin America • 25%
Positive response from EU • 25%
Positive response from Latin America • 25%
Positive reception • 25%
Other • 25%
Neutral reception • 25%
Negative reception • 25%
