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Significant U.S.-China trade agreement by June 30, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official announcements from U.S. or Chinese government and major news outlets
Story
Xi Jinping to Send High-Level Envoy to Trump's Inauguration on January 20
Jan 9, 2025, 10:49 PM
Chinese President Xi Jinping will send a high-level envoy to attend Donald Trump's inauguration on January 20, according to the Financial Times. This move is seen as an effort to reduce friction between China and the United States at the start of the new administration. Beijing has communicated to Trump's transition team that a senior official will represent Xi at the ceremony. Potential candidates for the envoy role include Vice President Han Zheng and Foreign Minister Wang Yi. The decision to send an envoy rather than Xi himself is interpreted as a strategic choice to manage the unpredictability of Trump while still signaling a desire to start the relationship on a positive note.
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Status quo maintained • 25%
Trade tensions escalate • 25%
New trade agreement reached • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
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Status quo maintained • 25%
New trade agreement • 25%
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Yes • 50%
Escalation of trade tensions • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Increased tariffs • 25%
New trade agreement • 25%
Intellectual Property • 25%
National Security • 25%
Economic Retaliation • 25%
Other • 25%