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Significant operational disruption at Panama Canal by end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Reports from major news outlets or official announcements from the Panama Canal Authority
Story
U.S. Relinquished Control of Panama Canal, Completed in 1914, to Panama on December 31, 1999, Under Torrijos-Carter Treaties
Dec 24, 2024, 07:27 PM
The Panama Canal, a crucial waterway for global trade, was constructed by the United States and completed in 1914. Following a treaty negotiated in 1977 by President Jimmy Carter, the U.S. relinquished control of the canal to Panama on December 31, 1999, during President Bill Clinton's administration. The transfer of control was part of the Torrijos-Carter Treaties, which outlined the gradual handover of the canal's rights to Panama, culminating in the full transfer at the end of the millennium. The canal remains a vital conduit for international shipping, facilitating a significant portion of the world's trade.
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Technical failures • 25%
Extreme weather • 25%
Political issues • 25%
Other • 25%
U.S. partial ownership • 25%
Panama retains full control • 25%
Joint management • 25%
Other changes • 25%
Demand return of the canal • 25%
Negotiate lower fees • 25%
Increase tariffs on Panama • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Increased fees • 25%
Decreased fees • 25%
Fees unchanged • 25%
Variable fees based on country • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
Economic sanctions • 25%
Military escalation • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
U.S. gains control • 25%
China gains control • 25%
Panama retains control • 25%
Other entity gains control • 25%
No disruptions • 25%
Minor disruptions • 25%
Moderate disruptions • 25%
Severe disruptions • 25%
Fees reduced • 25%
Fees remain unchanged • 25%
Fees increased • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
Panama agrees to U.S. control • 25%
Panama rejects U.S. control • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
No negotiations initiated • 25%