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Market
Outcome of MAS party tensions by March 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Evo Morales regains control over MAS party • 25%
A new leader emerges within MAS party • 25%
MAS party splits into factions • 25%
Status quo remains • 25%
Official announcements, news reports, or statements from MAS party
Story
Evo Morales Survives 14-Shot Assassination Attempt; Driver Wounded, Attacker at Large
Oct 27, 2024, 12:13 PM
Former Bolivian President Evo Morales survived an assassination attempt on October 27, 2024, after 14 gunshots were fired at his vehicle in the Tropico of Cochabamba region, his main stronghold. The attack, which injured his driver, occurred amid escalating political tensions and a power struggle within the ruling leftist MAS party. The attacker is still on the run. The area has been sealed off with no state presence. Supporters of Morales have been organizing road blockades and protests, leading to clashes with police in regions such as Cochabamba and Vinto. A police officer was critically injured in a dynamite blast during intense clashes with Morales' supporters. Morales' supporters are now guarding the trade union office where he is staying, forming a human protective ring while the attacker remains at large.
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Morales' faction gains control • 25%
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Morales assumes leadership • 25%
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New leader emerges • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Increased support for Morales • 25%
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National Rally • 25%
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Macron's coalition • 25%
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Conservative • 25%
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Protests dissipate without major incident • 25%
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Widely Supported • 25%
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Democratic Party of Korea • 25%
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