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What will be the outcome of the protests by Evo Morales' supporters by March 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Protests lead to government concessions • 25%
Protests lead to increased government crackdown • 25%
Protests dissipate without significant impact • 25%
Protests lead to Morales' return to political prominence • 25%
Reports from international news agencies or Bolivian government announcements
Story
Bolivian Prosecutors Issue Arrest Warrant for Evo Morales Over Alleged Abuse of Minor
Dec 16, 2024, 11:24 PM
Bolivian prosecutors have issued an arrest warrant for former President Evo Morales, charging the 65-year-old with human trafficking and sexual abuse of a minor. The allegations stem from a case involving Morales' alleged relationship with a 15-year-old girl in 2015, during his presidency, which resulted in the birth of a child in 2016. Prosecutor Sandra Gutiérrez announced the formal charges and confirmed the arrest warrant, which was issued on October 16 but only made public recently due to the complexity of the case. Morales, who has been in hiding in the Chapare region, has denied the accusations, labeling them as political persecution orchestrated by his successor, President Luis Arce, to prevent him from running in the upcoming presidential election. The case has led to significant political tension in Bolivia, with Morales' supporters engaging in protests and blockades.
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Case Ongoing • 25%
Convicted • 25%
Acquitted • 25%
Charges Dropped • 25%
Insufficient data • 25%
Majority believe guilty • 25%
Majority believe innocent • 25%
Public opinion divided • 25%
Charges dropped • 25%
Convicted • 25%
Trial ongoing • 25%
Acquitted • 25%
Protests lead to policy changes • 25%
Protests escalate into conflict • 25%
Protests subside with no change • 25%
Protests lead to leadership change • 25%
No Clear Opinion • 25%
Majority Believe Guilty • 25%
Majority Believe Innocent • 25%
Divided Opinion • 25%
Other significant outcome • 25%
Protests lead to increased government crackdown • 25%
Protests dissipate without significant change • 25%
Protests lead to negotiations • 25%
Protests increase • 25%
Protests remain steady • 25%
Protests decrease • 25%
Protests end • 25%
Other • 25%
New elections announced • 25%
Opposition gains significant political concessions • 25%
Maduro remains in power • 25%
Peaceful with no incidents • 25%
Major violence with fatalities • 25%
Minor clashes, no major incidents • 25%
Significant clashes with injuries • 25%
In Another Country • 25%
In Bolivia • 25%
In Argentina • 25%
Unknown • 25%
Protests subside with González in power • 25%
Protests escalate into violence • 25%
Protests subside with Maduro in power • 25%
Protests lead to negotiations • 25%