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Outcome of Iran-US tensions on Trump's safety assurances by December 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Tensions increase • 25%
Tensions decrease • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other • 25%
Official statements from US or Iranian governments, major news outlets
Story
Iran Assured US It Won't Target Trump or Americans After US Warning
Nov 15, 2024, 09:22 AM
Iran offered written assurances to the United States on October 14 that it is not seeking to assassinate former President Donald Trump or other Americans, according to American officials cited by the Wall Street Journal on Friday. The secret communication was a response to a private American warning issued in September, stressing that any attempt on Trump's life would be treated as an act of war. The exchange, involving secret messages between Tehran and Washington in recent weeks, aims to lower tensions between the two nations.
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Relations improve • 25%
Relations remain unchanged • 25%
Relations worsen • 25%
Relations break down • 25%
Iran admits involvement • 25%
Iran denies involvement • 25%
US accuses Iran without proof • 25%
No significant developments • 25%
Public assurance from Iran • 25%
No further communication • 25%
Tensions escalate • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Public acknowledgment and acceptance • 25%
Private acceptance, no public acknowledgment • 25%
Skeptical response • 25%
Rejection of assurance • 25%
Increased Sanctions • 25%
Diplomatic Expulsions • 25%
Military Action • 25%
Other • 25%
Increased sanctions • 25%
Diplomatic engagement • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other • 25%
Military conflict • 25%
New diplomatic agreement • 25%
Increased sanctions without conflict • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
De-escalation and diplomatic talks • 25%
Continued military presence without conflict • 25%
Limited military engagement • 25%
Full-scale conflict • 25%
Waiver Maintained • 25%
Waiver Revoked • 25%
Waiver Modified • 25%
No Agreement • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Diplomatic measures • 25%
Economic sanctions • 25%
Military action • 25%
No significant action • 25%