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How will the U.S. government respond to Iran's assurance regarding Trump by March 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Public acknowledgment and acceptance • 25%
Private acceptance, no public acknowledgment • 25%
Skeptical response • 25%
Rejection of assurance • 25%
Statements from U.S. government officials or reports from major news agencies
Story
Iran Secretly Assures U.S. It Won't Target Trump After U.S. Warning
Nov 15, 2024, 11:05 AM
Iran provided written assurances to the United States on October 14 that it is not seeking to assassinate former President Donald Trump, according to U.S. officials cited by The Wall Street Journal. The secret exchange, which was not signed by a specific official, was in response to a private warning from the Biden administration in September that any attempts on Trump's life would be treated as an act of war. The assurance aims to lower tensions between Tehran and Washington amid ongoing geopolitical concerns. This comes after the U.S. Department of Justice recently disclosed Iranian plots targeting U.S. officials.
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Diplomatic measures • 25%
Economic sanctions • 25%
Military action • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Denial of threats • 25%
Escalation of rhetoric • 25%
Acceptance of warning • 25%
No official response • 25%
Denial of involvement • 25%
Admission of involvement • 25%
No official response • 25%
Other response • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
Economic sanctions • 25%
Military action • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Relations improve • 25%
Relations remain unchanged • 25%
Relations worsen • 25%
Relations break down • 25%
Iran confirms assurances • 25%
Iran denies sending assurances • 25%
Iran issues a new statement • 25%
No official response • 25%
Iran denies the plot • 25%
Iran confirms the plot • 25%
Iran remains silent • 25%
Iran blames another entity • 25%
Relations improve • 25%
Relations worsen • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other • 25%
