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Outcome of the Iranian assassination threat against Trump by December 31, 2024
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Iran admits involvement • 25%
Iran denies involvement • 25%
US accuses Iran without proof • 25%
No significant developments • 25%
Official government statements, Trump campaign statements, and credible news outlets
Story
Republican Presidential Candidate Trump Briefed on Real and Specific Iranian Assassination Threats
Sep 25, 2024, 02:25 AM
Former President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump has been briefed by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence regarding real and specific threats from Iran to assassinate him. According to the Trump campaign, these threats are part of an effort by Iran to destabilize and sow chaos in the United States. The briefing highlighted that there have been continued and coordinated attacks heightening over the last few months. Trump was briefed by Biden administration officials. Tehran has denied involvement in the alleged assassination plots.
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Plot thwarted • 25%
Plot partially thwarted • 25%
Plot successful • 25%
No significant development • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Plot confirmed and suspects arrested • 25%
Plot confirmed but no arrests • 25%
Plot not confirmed • 25%
No information released • 25%
Economic sanctions • 25%
Military action • 25%
Diplomatic measures • 25%
No official response • 25%
Increased Sanctions • 25%
Diplomatic Expulsions • 25%
Military Action • 25%
Other • 25%
Intelligence Reports • 25%
Diplomatic Communications • 25%
Captured Operatives • 25%
Other • 25%
