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Outcome of investigation into Ukrainian missile attack by Dec 31?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Ukraine admits responsibility • 33%
Ukraine denies responsibility, blames malfunction • 33%
Russia blames Ukraine, no admission • 33%
Official investigation reports from Ukrainian, Russian governments, or international organizations
Story
Ukrainian Missile Attack on Crimea Kills Three, Including Two Children, Injures Nearly 100 at Beach
Jun 23, 2024, 11:42 AM
A Ukrainian missile attack on Russian-annexed Crimea has resulted in the deaths of three civilians, including two children, and nearly 100 injuries. The attack, which targeted the city of Sevastopol and a busy beach, involved the use of ATACMS missiles with cluster warheads. The Russian Defense Ministry reported that four ATACMS missiles were intercepted, but one deviated from its flight path and exploded in the air over Sevastopol. The Moscow-appointed governor of Crimea confirmed the casualties and injuries.
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Confirmed Russian military target • 25%
Confirmed civilian target • 25%
Mixed target • 25%
Inconclusive • 25%
Ukraine held responsible • 33%
Russia held responsible • 33%
No conclusive evidence • 34%
Confirmed as intentional strike • 25%
Confirmed as accidental strike • 25%
Inconclusive results • 25%
No investigation completed • 25%
Identified responsible parties • 25%
No conclusive findings • 25%
Ongoing investigation • 25%
Other • 25%
ICBM confirmed • 25%
Different missile type confirmed • 25%
Inconclusive results • 25%
No investigation • 25%
Confirmed execution by Russian forces • 25%
Execution not confirmed • 25%
Investigation inconclusive • 25%
No investigation conducted • 25%
Confirmed Norwegian missile • 25%
Confirmed non-Norwegian missile • 25%
Inconclusive results • 25%
No investigation results released • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Ukrainian forces responsible • 25%
Russian forces responsible • 25%
Other forces responsible • 25%
Inconclusive • 25%
Confirmed by Russia • 25%
Confirmed by Ukraine • 25%
Denied by both parties • 25%
Inconclusive • 25%
Russian military personnel charged • 25%
No charges filed • 25%
Investigation inconclusive • 25%
Other outcome • 25%