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What will be the outcome of the investigation into the alleged Ukrainian plot to hijack a Tu-22M3 bomber by Dec 31, 2024?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Confirmed by Russia • 25%
Confirmed by Ukraine • 25%
Denied by both parties • 25%
Inconclusive • 25%
Official statements or reports from the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) or Ukrainian intelligence agencies
Story
Russia Claims to Foil $3M Ukrainian Plot to Hijack Tu-22M3 Bomber
Jul 8, 2024, 07:52 AM
Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB) claims to have thwarted an attempt by Ukrainian intelligence to bribe a Russian pilot into hijacking a Tu-22M3 strategic bomber. According to the FSB, the pilot was offered $3 million and Italian citizenship but also faced threats to his family. The FSB released a video detailing the incident, which included an offer of $2 million and Italian passports to the pilot. The pilot shared that Ukraine aimed to obtain data on Russian combat aircraft, including tail numbers. Additionally, Russia bombed a Ukrainian airport in response. This incident follows a similar event last year involving Maxim Kuzminov.
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Identified responsible parties • 25%
No conclusive findings • 25%
Ongoing investigation • 25%
Other • 25%
Friendly fire confirmed • 25%
Intentional attack confirmed • 25%
Inconclusive results • 25%
No official report released • 25%
Intentional act by RSF • 25%
Mistake by RSF • 25%
Technical failure • 25%
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Confirmed Russian military target • 25%
Confirmed civilian target • 25%
Mixed target • 25%
Inconclusive • 25%
Ukraine held responsible • 33%
Russia held responsible • 33%
No conclusive evidence • 34%
Confirmed Ukrainian plot • 25%
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Inconclusive • 25%
No further information released • 25%
Ukraine held responsible • 25%
Russia held responsible • 25%
Third party held responsible • 25%
No conclusive outcome • 25%
Confirmed Ukrainian Attack • 25%
Confirmed Friendly Fire • 25%
Mechanical Failure • 25%
Unknown/Other • 25%
Belarusian fault • 25%
Russian fault • 25%
Technical malfunction • 25%
No conclusion reached • 25%
Ukrainian forces responsible • 25%
Russian forces responsible • 25%
Other forces responsible • 25%
Inconclusive • 25%
Confirmed as intentional strike • 25%
Confirmed as accidental strike • 25%
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No investigation completed • 25%
Confirmed execution by Russian forces • 25%
Execution not confirmed • 25%
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No investigation conducted • 25%
Ukraine admits responsibility • 33%
Ukraine denies responsibility, blames malfunction • 33%
Russia blames Ukraine, no admission • 33%