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What will be the outcome of the international investigation on the Sevastopol missile strike by December 31, 2024?
5
Resolution / Starting Odds
Ukraine held responsible • 33%
Russia held responsible • 33%
No conclusive evidence • 34%
Reports from international investigative bodies (e.g., U.N., OSCE)
Story
Ukraine Missile Strike on Sevastopol Beach Kills 5, Including Children, Injures 124
Jun 23, 2024, 02:46 PM
On June 23, 2024, Ukraine launched a missile attack on the Russian-annexed city of Sevastopol in Crimea using five U.S.-supplied ATACMS missiles equipped with cluster warheads. The Russian Defense Ministry reported that four of the missiles were intercepted by air defense units, but one missile deviated and exploded above the city. The attack targeted a beach and resulted in the deaths of five people, including three children, and injured 124 others, with 27 children among the wounded and five in critical condition. The Sevastopol governor confirmed the casualties. Russia has blamed the United States for the attack, stating that the U.S. is responsible for programming the flight trajectories of the missiles. The incident has heightened tensions, with Russia labeling the strike as a deliberate terrorist attack.
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Confirmed Russian military target • 25%
Confirmed civilian target • 25%
Mixed target • 25%
Inconclusive • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Confirmed as intentional strike • 25%
Confirmed as accidental strike • 25%
Inconclusive results • 25%
No investigation completed • 25%
Ukrainian forces responsible • 25%
Russian forces responsible • 25%
Other forces responsible • 25%
Inconclusive • 25%
Confirmed North Korean missile • 25%
Confirmed Russian missile • 25%
Joint operation by Russia and North Korea • 25%
Inconclusive • 25%
Identified responsible parties • 25%
No conclusive findings • 25%
Ongoing investigation • 25%
Other • 25%
Russia held responsible • 25%
Ukraine held responsible • 25%
Third party held responsible • 25%
No conclusive result • 25%
Confirmed Russian responsibility • 25%
Inconclusive findings • 25%
Alternative perpetrator identified • 25%
Investigation ongoing • 25%
Ukraine admits responsibility • 33%
Ukraine denies responsibility, blames malfunction • 33%
Russia blames Ukraine, no admission • 33%
Russia found responsible • 25%
Ukraine found responsible • 25%
Both parties found responsible • 25%
No conclusive evidence • 25%
Confirmed Norwegian missile • 25%
Confirmed non-Norwegian missile • 25%
Inconclusive results • 25%
No investigation results released • 25%