Loading...
Market
Outcome of hostage exchange deal in Gaza ceasefire by mid-2025?
2
Israeli National Security•Benjamin Netanyahu•Gaza ceasefire•Hamas•Otzma Yehudit•Jewish Power•Negev•Galilee•Yitzhak Wasserlauf•Amichai Eliyahu
Resolution / Starting Odds
Successful exchange, all hostages released • 25%
Partial exchange, some hostages released • 25%
Failed exchange, no hostages released • 25%
Exchange delayed beyond timeframe • 25%
Reports from the Israeli government, Hamas, or credible news outlets
Story
Israeli National Security Minister Ben-Gvir and Party Resign Over Gaza Ceasefire Deal
Jan 19, 2025, 08:29 AM
On January 19, 2025, Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir resigned from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government in protest over the Gaza ceasefire deal with Hamas. The ceasefire agreement includes a hostage exchange. Ben-Gvir, leader of the far-right Otzma Yehudit (Jewish Power) party, announced his resignation along with other party ministers, including Negev and Galilee Development Minister Yitzhak Wasserlauf and Heritage Minister Amichai Eliyahu. He criticized the deal as a capitulation to Hamas.
View original story
Similar markets
Partial exchange • 25%
Complete exchange as agreed • 25%
Exchange fails • 25%
No exchange occurs • 25%
Ceasefire broken • 25%
Deal fully implemented • 25%
Deal partially implemented • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Deal collapsed • 25%
Fully implemented • 25%
Partially implemented • 25%
Not implemented • 25%
Approved and implemented • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Rejected • 25%
Approved but not implemented • 25%
Terms renegotiated • 25%
Partial fulfillment • 25%
No fulfillment • 25%
All terms fulfilled • 25%
Negotiations Ongoing • 25%
Agreement Rejected • 25%
Agreement Approved but Not Implemented • 25%
Agreement Approved and Implemented • 25%
Failure • 25%
Indeterminate • 25%
Partial success • 25%
Complete success • 25%
Some hostages released • 25%
No hostages released • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
All hostages released • 25%
Ceasefire and hostage release successful • 25%
Hostage release only • 25%
Ceasefire only • 25%
Neither successful • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Negotiations continue with no agreement • 25%
Agreement reached and hostages exchanged • 25%
Negotiations break down completely • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Full implementation • 25%
No implementation • 25%
Agreement abandoned • 25%
Partial implementation • 25%
Information on Avera Mengistu and Hisham al-Sayed received • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Hadar Goldin's body returned • 25%
Yahya Sinwar's body returned • 25%