Loading...
Market
Outcome of heightened Chechen tensions by mid-2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Increased military conflict • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Chechen government changes • 25%
Reports from international security organizations and news agencies
Story
Kadyrov Orders No Prisoners After Drone Strike on Vladimir Putin Police Academy
Oct 29, 2024, 01:30 PM
Ramzan Kadyrov, the head of Chechnya, has ordered Chechen commanders not to take Ukrainian soldiers prisoner following a drone strike on a police academy in Grozny. The attack on the Vladimir Putin police academy, which some sources suggest may have originated from Dagestan or Ingushetia, has heightened tensions in the region. Kadyrov's directive to intensify combat operations and eliminate prisoners has drawn significant condemnation, with some labeling him a war criminal. He promised retribution for the attack on the special forces university. This escalation follows the first attack on Chechnya since the start of the war.
View original story
Similar markets
Direct military action • 25%
Cyber retaliation • 25%
Diplomatic retaliation • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Ground assault • 25%
Air strikes • 25%
Cyber attacks • 25%
Diplomatic measures • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Increased military presence • 25%
Enhanced intelligence operations • 25%
Political negotiations • 25%
Economic sanctions • 25%
Increased ground assaults • 25%
Air strikes • 25%
Cyber attacks • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Military retaliation • 25%
Diplomatic action • 25%
Increased security measures • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Increased security in affected areas • 25%
Significant reduction in Ukrainian attacks • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%
No significant change • 25%