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What will be the outcome of Russia's counterterrorism operation in response to the Ukrainian attacks by December 31, 2024?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Increased security in affected areas • 25%
Significant reduction in Ukrainian attacks • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Verified news reports from major international news agencies (e.g., Reuters, BBC, CNN)
Story
Ukraine Strikes Chkalovsky Airbase and Kursk; Moscow Vows Tough Response
Aug 11, 2024, 09:11 PM
Ukrainian forces have intensified their offensive operations against Russia, launching drone attacks on multiple fronts. A significant UAV strike targeted Voronezh, with over a dozen Ukrainian drones operating in the area. Additionally, Ukrainian drones attacked the Chkalovsky Airbase near Moscow, prompting heavy air defense activity. The Russian Foreign Ministry has announced a 'tough response' to these incursions, particularly in the border region of Kursk, where Ukrainian forces conducted a massive missile attack. In response, Russia has initiated a counterterrorism operation to bolster security in the affected areas.
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Increased military action • 25%
New diplomatic efforts • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other • 25%
Full retake of Kursk • 25%
Partial control of Kursk • 25%
Status quo remains • 25%
Escalation to broader conflict • 25%
Significant territorial gains for Russia • 25%
Stalemate with no significant changes • 25%
Significant territorial losses for Russia • 25%
Peace negotiations initiated • 25%
Military victory for Russia • 25%
Military victory for Ukraine • 25%
Negotiated settlement • 25%
Ongoing conflict • 25%
Complete success • 25%
Partial success • 25%
No significant progress • 25%
Operation failure • 25%
Significant Territorial Gain • 25%
Withdrawal • 25%
Other • 25%
Significant territorial gains • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Territorial losses • 25%
Peace agreement • 25%
Ukrainian forces gain significant territory • 25%
Stalemate with no significant gains • 25%
Russian forces repel Ukrainian offensive • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Russia achieves all goals • 25%
Ukraine regains some territories • 25%
Stalemate with no significant changes • 25%
Peace agreement reached • 25%
Ukraine maintains control of the incursion areas • 25%
Russia regains control of the incursion areas • 25%
Stalemate with no clear control • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Majority intercepted • 25%
Moderate interception • 25%
Few intercepted • 25%
None intercepted • 25%
Continued bombings • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Increased NATO involvement • 25%
Other • 25%
Increased Military Presence • 25%
Diplomatic Measures • 25%
No Significant Response • 25%
Other • 25%