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Outcome of Grenell's role as Russia-Ukraine envoy by Dec 31, 2025
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Successful peace negotiations • 25%
No significant progress • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Grenell replaced • 25%
Official announcements or credible news reports on the outcomes achieved
Story
Trump Considers Richard Grenell as Russia-Ukraine Envoy Amid NATO Concerns
Nov 23, 2024, 05:32 AM
US President-elect Donald Trump is considering appointing Richard Grenell, his former acting Director of National Intelligence and former U.S. Ambassador to Germany, as a special envoy for the Russia-Ukraine conflict, according to multiple sources. Grenell's diplomatic experience includes peace negotiations in Serbia and Kosovo, and he is known for his strong opposition to the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. He has previously suggested peace plans involving the creation of "autonomous zones" as a means of settling the conflict and has expressed opposition to Ukraine's membership in NATO. His potential appointment has raised concerns due to his past stances.
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Peace agreement reached • 25%
Conflict continues without resolution • 25%
Grenell is replaced or resigns • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Appointed and active • 25%
Appointed but not active • 25%
Not appointed • 25%
Appointed and resigned • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Successful peace negotiations • 25%
Stalemate with no progress • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Grenell not appointed • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Economic sanctions • 25%
Military de-escalation • 25%
Humanitarian aid • 25%
Political negotiations • 25%
Formal agreement • 25%
Ongoing negotiations • 25%
No progress • 25%
Escalation of tensions • 25%
Successful agreement reached • 25%
Talks initiated but no agreement • 25%
Mission aborted • 25%
No mission conducted • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Improved relations • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Strained relations • 25%
Unclear impact • 25%