Market
Will there be increased diplomatic tensions between Turkey and Iraq due to MIT operations by June 30, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official statements from the governments of Turkey and Iraq or reports by major international news organizations
Story
Turkey's MIT Neutralizes PKK/KCK Leader Mürvet Gülsever in Sulaymaniyah, Iraq
Dec 7, 2024, 11:10 AM
Turkey's National Intelligence Organization (MIT) has neutralized Mürvet Gülsever, a so-called leader of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK/KCK) women's organization PAJK, in the Iraqi city of Sulaymaniyah. Gülsever was reportedly a key figure in the PKK/KCK's female wing, known as PAJK, and was targeted in a precise operation by MIT in Iraq.
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Similar markets
Increased international tension • 25%
Successful de-escalation • 25%
Other • 25%
Continued operations • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Other outcome • 25%
Military confrontation occurs • 25%
Diplomatic resolution reached • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
No significant change in PKK/YPG activity • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Increase in PKK/YPG activity • 25%
Significant reduction in PKK/YPG activity • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
No significant response • 25%
Condemnation and sanctions • 25%
Calls for diplomatic resolution • 25%
Support for Turkey's actions • 25%
No significant international response • 25%
Support from NATO allies • 25%
Condemnation by the UN • 25%
Sanctions imposed by EU • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
