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What will be the outcome of diplomatic efforts regarding Turkish operations in northern Iraq by June 30, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Successful de-escalation • 25%
Continued operations • 25%
Increased international tension • 25%
Other • 25%
Reports from international diplomatic meetings or official statements
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Turkey Neutralizes 11 PKK Terrorists in Zap Region Air Operation, Says National Defense Ministry
Dec 20, 2024, 08:34 AM
The Turkish National Defense Ministry announced that 11 members of the PKK (Kurdistan Workers' Party) were neutralized during an air operation in northern Iraq. The operation, which took place in the Zap region, was part of ongoing military efforts by the Turkish Armed Forces to combat terrorism. The ministry emphasized that operations will continue without interruption. This action follows a broader strategy by Turkey to target PKK militants in northern Iraq, where the group has been active.
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Other outcomes • 25%
Significant reduction in PKK/YPG activity • 25%
No significant change in PKK/YPG activity • 25%
Increase in PKK/YPG activity • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Significant reduction • 25%
Increased PKK activity • 25%
Minimal impact • 25%
Complete elimination • 25%
Continued sporadic operations • 25%
Formal peace agreement • 25%
Withdrawal of forces • 25%
Increased military presence • 25%
Condemnation and sanctions • 25%
Support for Turkey's actions • 25%
Calls for diplomatic resolution • 25%
No significant response • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Successful operation with significant Kurdish retreat • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Operation called off or delayed indefinitely • 25%
Stalemate with ongoing conflict • 25%
Improved relations with Syrian government • 25%
Other • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Increased tensions with Syrian government • 25%
Consulate not opened and relations worsen • 25%
Consulate opened and diplomatic relations improved • 25%
Consulate not opened due to diplomatic issues • 25%
Consulate opened but relations remain tense • 25%
Mixed Responses • 25%
Condemnation • 25%
Neutral • 25%
Support • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Diplomatic resolution with SDF • 25%
Increased military engagement • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Partial resolution • 25%
Continued conflict • 25%
Successful peace agreement • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Condemnation and sanctions • 25%
No significant international response • 25%
Support for Turkey's actions • 25%
Diplomatic pressure but no sanctions • 25%