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Turkey's MIT Neutralizes PKK/KCK Leader Mürvet Gülsever in Sulaymaniyah, Iraq

Dec 7, 2024, 11:10 AM

Turkey's National Intelligence Organization (MIT) has neutralized Mürvet Gülsever, a so-called leader of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK/KCK) women's organization PAJK, in the Iraqi city of Sulaymaniyah. Gülsever was reportedly a key figure in the PKK/KCK's female wing, known as PAJK, and was targeted in a precise operation by MIT in Iraq.

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Will PKK/KCK retaliate against Turkey following the neutralization of Mürvet Gülsever by February 29, 2025?

Turkey•National Intelligence Organization•MIT•Mürvet Gülsever•PAJK•Iraqi•Sulaymaniyah•Gülsever•Iraq

Resolution / Starting Odds

No • 50%

Yes • 50%

Reports from international news agencies or official statements from PKK/KCK

Will there be increased diplomatic tensions between Turkey and Iraq due to MIT operations by June 30, 2025?

Turkey•National Intelligence Organization•MIT•Mürvet Gülsever•PAJK•Iraqi•Sulaymaniyah•Gülsever•Iraq

Resolution / Starting Odds

No • 50%

Yes • 50%

Official statements from the governments of Turkey and Iraq or reports by major international news organizations

Will Turkey's MIT neutralize another high-ranking PKK/KCK leader in Iraq by March 31, 2025?

Turkey•National Intelligence Organization•MIT•Mürvet Gülsever•PAJK•Iraqi•Sulaymaniyah•Gülsever•Iraq

Resolution / Starting Odds

Yes • 50%

No • 50%

Official announcements from Turkey's National Intelligence Organization or credible news outlets

What will be the impact on PKK/KCK activities in Iraq following Mürvet Gülsever's neutralization by April 30, 2025?

Turkey•National Intelligence Organization•MIT•Mürvet Gülsever•PAJK•Iraqi•Sulaymaniyah•Gülsever•Iraq

Resolution / Starting Odds

No significant change • 25%

Decrease in activities • 25%

Other • 25%

Increase in activities • 25%

Reports from international monitoring agencies or major news outlets

What will be the international reaction to Turkey's operation against Mürvet Gülsever by January 31, 2025?

Turkey•National Intelligence Organization•MIT•Mürvet Gülsever•PAJK•Iraqi•Sulaymaniyah•Gülsever•Iraq

Resolution / Starting Odds

Other • 25%

Neutral stance • 25%

Condemnation from EU • 25%

Support from NATO • 25%

Statements from international organizations or countries, and reports by major news outlets

What will be the leadership change within PKK/KCK following Mürvet Gülsever's neutralization by May 31, 2025?

Turkey•National Intelligence Organization•MIT•Mürvet Gülsever•PAJK•Iraqi•Sulaymaniyah•Gülsever•Iraq

Resolution / Starting Odds

Other • 25%

New leader appointed • 25%

Current leadership consolidated • 25%

Leadership structure remains unchanged • 25%

Announcements from PKK/KCK or reports from credible news agencies