Market
How will Hamas leadership change under Mohammed Sinwar by December 31, 2025?
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Mohammed Sinwar•Hamas•Yahya Sinwar•Gaza Strip•The Wall Street Journal•Israel Defense Forces•IDF•Israeli
Resolution / Starting Odds
Strengthened leadership • 25%
Weakened leadership • 25%
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Leadership transition • 25%
Official Hamas announcements or reports from major news outlets
Story
50-Year-Old Mohammed Sinwar, Known as 'Shadow', Leads Hamas in Gaza, Boosts Recruitment
Jan 13, 2025, 08:15 PM
Mohammed Sinwar, the younger brother of the late Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, has assumed leadership of the group in the Gaza Strip, according to reports from The Wall Street Journal. Previously heading the Izz al-Din al-Qassam Brigades, the 50-year-old Mohammed Sinwar, known as 'Shadow' for his behind-the-scenes operations, is now leading efforts to rebuild Hamas. The group has been recruiting new fighters at a pace that reportedly exceeds the rate at which the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) can eliminate them, with recruitment efforts taking place at funerals and other gatherings. These new fighters, promised food, aid, and medical care, are engaging in hit-and-run attacks. Mohammed Sinwar is less known to Israeli security compared to his brother, and Israeli officials have stated they are actively working to locate him. The leadership transition comes amid ongoing tensions and military actions in the region.
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