Market
What will be the impact on Hamas leadership structure by December 31, 2025, following Haniyeh's assassination?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
New leader elected • 25%
Internal power struggle • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other • 25%
Announcements from Hamas or credible reports
Story
Israeli Channel 12 Reports Ismail Haniyeh Assassinated by Bomb Hidden in Pillow in Tehran Before Inauguration Ceremony
Dec 28, 2024, 07:20 PM
Israeli Channel 12 has reported that Ismail Haniyeh, the late head of Hamas, was assassinated in Tehran through a bomb concealed in his personal pillow. The channel indicated that new details regarding the assassination will be disclosed next Saturday, revealing how the bomb was placed in Haniyeh's room. The report suggests that the assassination was carried out by the Israeli intelligence agency Mossad, with the bomb strategically positioned to avoid collateral damage. Additionally, it was noted that Haniyeh had been observed visiting the same location in Tehran multiple times and staying in the same room. The bomb was reportedly planted before the inauguration ceremony of the new Iranian president.
View original story
Similar markets
Internal conflict arises • 25%
New leader appointed • 25%
Other significant change • 25%
Leadership remains unchanged • 25%
Other • 25%
Mohammed Sinwar remains leader • 25%
Collective leadership council reinstated • 25%
New leader appointed • 25%
New leader appointed • 25%
Current leader remains • 25%
Leadership dispute • 25%
Other leadership outcome • 25%
No leadership change • 25%
Both leaders replaced • 25%
Yahya Sinwar replaced • 25%
Ismail Haniyeh replaced • 25%
Leadership transition in progress • 25%
Current leader remains • 25%
Other leadership change • 25%
New leader appointed • 25%
Ismail Haniyeh • 25%
Other • 25%
Khaled Mashal • 25%
Yahya Sinwar • 25%
Weakened leadership • 25%
Leadership transition • 25%
Leadership unchanged • 25%
Strengthened leadership • 25%
No leadership change • 25%
Other organizational changes • 25%
Leadership restructuring • 25%
Hamas leadership change • 25%
Condemnation of both • 25%
Condemnation of Israel • 25%
Condemnation of Iran • 25%
No formal response • 25%
Another entity confirmed as responsible • 25%
No conclusive result • 25%
Investigation ongoing • 25%
Mossad confirmed as responsible • 25%