Market
Will there be a change in leadership or major policy shift in Russia due to economic impact by the end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Change in leadership • 25%
Major policy shift • 25%
Both • 25%
Neither • 25%
Official announcements from the Russian government or credible news sources
Story
Putin Believes Key Ukraine War Goals Achieved, Concerned About Economic Impact Amid Trump's Pressure
Jan 23, 2025, 09:15 AM
Russian President Vladimir Putin believes that key objectives in the war against Ukraine have been achieved, including securing a land corridor connecting Russia to Crimea and weakening Ukraine's military capabilities, according to sources cited by Reuters. However, Putin is increasingly concerned about the economic impact of the ongoing conflict on Russia. During a December 16 meeting with business leaders, Putin reportedly became frustrated and scolded economic officials, expressing visible displeasure after learning that high credit costs aimed at curbing inflation have stifled private investment, leading to economic strain. This situation has prompted some members of Russia's elite to advocate for negotiating a settlement to the conflict. Meanwhile, newly inaugurated U.S. President Donald Trump has been pushing for an end to the war in Ukraine, increasing pressure on Moscow.
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No significant changes • 25%
Policy shift towards de-escalation • 25%
Policy shift towards increased militarization • 25%
Leadership change within Russian government • 25%
No leadership change • 25%
Putin steps down • 25%
Putin is replaced • 25%
Putin remains in power • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Putin remains in power • 25%
Putin replaced by opposition • 25%
Putin replaced by ally • 25%
Leadership remains unchanged • 25%
New military commander appointed • 25%
Existing leadership remains • 25%
Leadership restructuring • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Military buildup • 25%
Increased sanctions • 25%
Increased cooperation • 25%
Military confrontation • 25%
Alliance formation • 25%
Diplomatic stalemate • 25%
Economic sanctions • 25%
No changes • 25%
Yes, complete overhaul • 25%
Yes, partial changes • 25%
Other response • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other policy changes • 25%
Increased sanctions on Russia • 25%
Diplomatic engagement with Russia • 25%
No major policy change • 25%
Cultural exchange programs • 25%
Economic partnership • 25%
Military cooperation • 25%