Market
Will the Eagle S tanker be found guilty of damaging EstLink 2 cable by June 30, 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Court rulings or official announcements from Finnish authorities
Story
Finland Detains Tanker Eagle S After Undersea Cable Damage; Sabotage Suspected
Dec 26, 2024, 11:55 AM
Finland is investigating an outage of the undersea power cable EstLink 2, which connects Finland and Estonia, following a sudden disruption on December 25. Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo confirmed the investigation, stating that authorities are considering the possibility of sabotage. The cable's capacity dropped significantly at 10:26 AM GMT, reducing electricity transmission between the two countries. Finnish police are investigating whether external forces, including the involvement of foreign vessels, may have caused the damage. A foreign oil tanker, the Eagle S, registered in the Cook Islands, has been detained by Finnish authorities for investigation. The Finnish Coast Guard boarded the Eagle S via helicopter after it was found dragging its anchor in Finnish waters. Finnish police suspect aggravated criminal damage and aggravated sanctions violations. Additionally, disruptions have been reported in four undersea data cables between Finland and Estonia. Estonian and Finnish officials are cooperating closely on the matter. Security measures have been heightened in the Baltic Sea region due to the incident.
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No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No vessel identified • 25%
Eagle S • 25%
Xin Xin Tian • 25%
Another vessel • 25%
Accidental cause • 25%
State actor • 25%
Non-state actor • 25%
Unknown • 25%
Cause undetermined • 25%
Anchor damage by 'Eagle S' • 25%
Natural causes • 25%
Sabotage by another entity • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Confirmed sabotage by foreign entity • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Inconclusive results • 25%
Confirmed accidental damage • 25%