Market
Will the Eagle S tanker be found guilty of sabotage by September 30, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official announcements from Finnish authorities or court verdicts
Story
Finland Detains Russian 'Shadow Fleet' Tanker Over Estlink 2 Sabotage
Dec 26, 2024, 01:39 PM
Finnish authorities are investigating damage to the undersea Estlink 2 power cable connecting Finland and Estonia, following an outage on December 25th. Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo announced that the cause of the disruption is under investigation, with sabotage not being ruled out. The Finnish police have opened a probe into the possible involvement of a foreign vessel. An oil tanker named Eagle S, registered under the Cook Islands flag and suspected of being part of Russia's 'shadow fleet', has been detained by the Finnish Coast Guard's patrol vessel Turva and is under investigation for aggravated sabotage and aggravated sanctions violations. The Eagle S was sailing from St. Petersburg to Port Said and had reportedly slowed down when passing over the cable. The incident also affected four undersea telecommunications cables between Finland and Estonia, which are now out of service. Authorities are working to determine whether the damage was caused intentionally or accidentally.
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Similar markets
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Accidental cable damage • 25%
Other • 25%
Confirmed espionage • 25%
Technical malfunction • 25%
Investigation inconclusive • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Eagle S found responsible • 25%
Eagle S not found responsible • 25%
Accidental damage • 25%
Intentional sabotage confirmed • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No conclusive evidence • 25%
Accidental damage • 25%
Confirmed sabotage • 25%
No conclusive evidence • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Eagle S confirmed as cause • 25%
Eagle S cleared of involvement • 25%
Investigation inconclusive • 25%
No conclusive evidence found • 25%
Confirmed sabotage by Eagle S • 25%
Accidental damage by Eagle S • 25%
Other parties found responsible • 25%