Market
Who will be identified as responsible for the Estlink 2 cable disruption by June 30, 2025?
3
Finland•Petteri Orpo•Estonia•Christmas•Finnish•Fingrid•Arto Pahkin•Baltic Sea•Germany•Lithuania•Sweden
Resolution / Starting Odds
State actor • 25%
Non-state actor • 25%
Accidental cause • 25%
Unknown • 25%
Reports from Finnish authorities or international investigative bodies
Story
Finnish PM Announces Estlink 2 Undersea Power Cable to Estonia Severed; Sabotage Suspected
Dec 25, 2024, 07:46 PM
On Wednesday, December 25, Finland's Prime Minister Petteri Orpo announced that the Estlink 2 undersea electricity cable connecting Finland and Estonia was disconnected. The disruption is under investigation, with authorities remaining on standby over Christmas and considering the possibility of sabotage. At the time of the incident, 658 megawatts of electricity were being transmitted from Finland to Estonia. Finnish grid operator Fingrid confirmed the outage; Head of Fingrid's supervision department, Arto Pahkin, indicated that they are collaborating with counterparts to determine the cause. This incident follows previous disruptions to undersea cables and energy pipelines in the Baltic Sea region, including damage reported between Finland and Germany, and Lithuania and Sweden earlier in November, and two breaks recorded in December. The power grid operator does not rule out sabotage.
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No • 50%
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Another vessel • 25%
Xin Xin Tian • 25%
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Eagle S • 25%
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Eagle S tanker crew • 25%
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