Market
Will Israel maintain control over the Golan Heights buffer zone throughout 2025?
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Israeli•Benjamin Netanyahu•Golan Heights•Syrian•Middle East•Netanyahu•Israel•Assad regime•Hezbollah•Iran•Israel Defense Forces•IDF•Mount Hermon•Israeli Defense
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Reports from international news agencies and official statements from the Israeli government
Story
Israel Seizes Mount Hermon as 1974 Agreement Collapses; Netanyahu Vows to Block Hostile Forces
Dec 8, 2024, 01:35 PM
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced that Israeli forces have seized control of a buffer zone in the Golan Heights near the Syrian border, following the withdrawal of Syrian troops amid unrest. Calling it a "historic day for the Middle East," Netanyahu declared that Israel will not allow any hostile force to establish itself along its borders and stated that the 1974 disengagement agreement has collapsed as Syrian soldiers abandoned their positions. He attributed the collapse of the Assad regime to Israel's forceful actions against Hezbollah and Iran. Reports from Saudi Al-Hadath indicate that the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) have taken over strategic locations, including the Syrian side of Mount Hermon. The Israeli Defense Minister announced the deployment of forces in the buffer zone to protect Israelis in the Golan Heights.
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No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Negotiated settlement reached • 25%
Israel forced to withdraw • 25%
Israel withdraws voluntarily • 25%
Israel retains control • 25%
A new peace agreement • 25%
Syria regains control • 25%
Israel retains control • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Complete withdrawal • 25%
Increased presence • 25%
Partial withdrawal • 25%
No withdrawal • 25%
Ongoing conflict • 25%
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Return to 1974 agreement terms • 25%
Israel retains control • 25%
