Market
How will regional power dynamics shift by end of 2025?
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Israeli•Benjamin Netanyahu•Golan Heights•Syrian•Middle East•Netanyahu•Israel•Assad regime•Hezbollah•Iran•Israel Defense Forces•IDF•Mount Hermon•Israeli Defense
Resolution / Starting Odds
Increased Israeli influence • 25%
Increased Syrian influence • 25%
Increased Hezbollah/Iran influence • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Analysis from geopolitical think tanks and reports from international news agencies
Story
Israel Seizes Mount Hermon as 1974 Agreement Collapses; Netanyahu Vows to Block Hostile Forces
Dec 8, 2024, 01:35 PM
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced that Israeli forces have seized control of a buffer zone in the Golan Heights near the Syrian border, following the withdrawal of Syrian troops amid unrest. Calling it a "historic day for the Middle East," Netanyahu declared that Israel will not allow any hostile force to establish itself along its borders and stated that the 1974 disengagement agreement has collapsed as Syrian soldiers abandoned their positions. He attributed the collapse of the Assad regime to Israel's forceful actions against Hezbollah and Iran. Reports from Saudi Al-Hadath indicate that the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) have taken over strategic locations, including the Syrian side of Mount Hermon. The Israeli Defense Minister announced the deployment of forces in the buffer zone to protect Israelis in the Golan Heights.
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Other regional power shifts • 25%
Iran gains power • 25%
Iran loses power • 25%
Power balance remains stable • 25%
Increased Iranian influence • 25%
Increased Russian influence • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Increased Western influence • 25%
Turkey • 25%
Other • 25%
Iran • 25%
Russia • 25%
Iran • 25%
Turkey • 25%
Israel • 25%
Saudi Arabia • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Improved diplomatic relations • 25%
Other • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
New alliance forms • 25%
Current alliances strengthen • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Alliances weaken significantly • 25%
Resistance movements disbanded • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Resistance movements strengthened • 25%
Resistance movements weakened • 25%
Economic sanctions • 25%
Alliance formation • 25%
Diplomatic stalemate • 25%
Military confrontation • 25%
Strengthened Iran-Iraq alliance • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Increased cooperation with Western countries • 25%
Deterioration of Iran-Iraq relations • 25%
Africa • 25%
Middle East • 25%
Eastern Europe • 25%
Central Asia • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Decreased influence • 25%
Increased influence • 25%
Iran isolated • 25%