Market
Will Iran's nuclear program reach a critical point before October 2025?
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Emmanuel Macron•Iran•Macron•Middle East•Europe•Donald Trump•Tehran•Western•Russia•Ukraine war•Africa
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Reports from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) or similar credible sources
Story
Macron Warns of Iran Nuclear Threat, Urges Snapback Sanctions Before October 2025
Jan 6, 2025, 01:07 PM
French President Emmanuel Macron warned that Iran's nuclear program is approaching the point of no return, bringing the situation to the brink of rupture. Speaking on Monday during an annual address to ambassadors, Macron described Iran as the main strategic and security challenge in the Middle East, Europe, and beyond. He emphasized the need for strategic discussions with President Donald Trump's administration regarding Tehran. Macron suggested that Western leaders should ask themselves whether to invoke the snapback mechanism to reimpose sanctions on Iran before its expiration in October 2025. He cited the acceleration of Iran's nuclear and missile programs, its military support for Russia in the Ukraine war, support for dangerous groups in the region, deployment of proxy forces in Africa, and involvement in terrorism as reasons for his concerns.
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Acceleration of nuclear development • 25%
Complete suspension of nuclear program • 25%
Continuation with increased transparency • 25%
No change in current policy • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Significant advancements • 25%
Nuclear program dismantled • 25%
Reduced nuclear activities • 25%
New sanctions imposed on Iran • 25%
Military intervention occurs • 25%
Iran complies with nuclear deal terms • 25%
No significant change • 25%
